BharatNotes Interactive Tool
UPSC Service Allocation Predictor
Enter your expected final rank and category. Get a probability-weighted prediction of which service you'll get — IAS, IFS, IPS, IRS, or other Group A services. Based on last 5 years' DoPT allocations.
Your service prediction appears here
Enter your rank and category to see which service you're likely to get, with confidence bands derived from 5 years of DoPT allocation data.
Last Rank Allocated — 5-Year Data (DoPT)
Last rank getting each service, by category. Source: DoPT service allocation PDFs (cseplus.dopt.gov.in) and analysis by IndianMasterminds, PWOnlyIAS. "~" = approximate (full granular tables not always published).
| Service | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAS — General / UR | |||||
| IAS | 78 | 82 | 77 | ~80 | 77 |
| IFS | 107 | ~110 | 88 | ~90 | 88 |
| IPS | 252 | ~230 | 228 | ~210 | 229 |
| IRS (IT) | ~450 | ~400 | ~270 | 261 | 257 |
| IRS (Customs) | ~470 | ~420 | ~290 | 275 | 274 |
| IAAS | ~550 | ~500 | ~520 | ~510 | ~510 |
| IAS — OBC | |||||
| IAS (OBC) | 435 | 403 | ~430 | ~410 | ~420 |
| IAS — SC | |||||
| IAS (SC) | 567 | 577 | ~580 | ~550 | ~560 |
| IAS — ST | |||||
| IAS (ST) | 625 | 507 | ~530 | ~530 | ~540 |
Cadre Allocation Policy (2017) — Quick Reference
For IAS, IPS, and IFoS, allocation is done by 5 zones. You give 1 preference per zone, then 1 cadre per zone — forces geographic diversity.
📍 The 5 Zones
- Zone I — AGMUT, J&K, HP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana
- Zone II — UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha
- Zone III — Gujarat, Maharashtra, MP, Chhattisgarh
- Zone IV — West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam-Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland
- Zone V — Telangana, AP, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala
🏠 Home Cadre Rule (1:2)
- Insider:outsider ratio = 1:2. For every 3 officers in a cadre, 1 is insider (home state).
- To be eligible for home cadre, you MUST list your home zone as Zone-1 and home state as State-1 preference.
- If you skip your home zone, you can never get home cadre — even if you're rank 1.
- Strategy: most aspirants do list home as Zone-1 (familiarity). For competitive states (UP, MH, KA), home cadre cut-off ranks are tight.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is this predictor?
The predictor uses last 5 years of DoPT allocation data. Service allocations follow strict rank-order based on DAF preferences and vacancies. Predictions are indicative bands (Likely / Possible / Unlikely), not deterministic. Year-to-year vacancy changes (IRS swung from 163 in 2022 to 291 in 2023) can shift cutoffs significantly.
I'm OBC/SC/ST but my rank is in the General range. Will I get a better service?
Yes. If your rank clears the UR cutoff, you're counted in UR (the "migration rule") and you get the service based on UR last rank — not your reserved-category last rank. You don't consume a reserved seat in that case.
Does DAF preference order matter?
Absolutely. Allocation is done strictly in rank order, candidate by candidate. UPSC honours your first preference for which a vacancy still exists at your turn. If you ranked IFS above IAS and there's an IFS seat open, you get IFS — even if IAS is also open.
Why are some categories shown as "insufficient data"?
EWS was introduced in 2019 with only 3–10 seats per service per year. Many service × category combinations have zero allocations in a given year, making trend analysis unreliable. We've flagged these explicitly rather than guessing.
What is IRMS? Is it different from IRTS?
Indian Railway Management Service (IRMS) was created in 2022 by merging the older railway services: IRTS, IRPS, IRAS, IRSME, IRSE, IRSS, IRSSE. Now a single unified Group A service for all Railway management cadres. Older IRTS/IRPS last-rank data is not directly comparable post-2022.
Can I change my service preference after submitting DAF-II?
No. DAF-II preferences are final and binding. UPSC processes your DAF in rank order — there's no "withdrawal" or "second chance" if you don't get your preferred service.
What's the difference between IRS-IT and IRS-Customs?
IRS (Income Tax): Under CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes), Ministry of Finance. Handles direct taxes — income tax, corporate tax. IRS (Customs & Indirect Taxes / IRS-C&IT): Under CBIC (Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs), Ministry of Finance. Handles GST, customs, central excise. Both are Group A services, similar pay structure but different functions.
