Non-Traditional Security Threats

Introduction

Traditional security thinking centred on military threats to state sovereignty. The post-Cold War period, and especially the era since 2001, has demonstrated that the most disruptive threats to nations can arise from pandemic disease, climate-driven resource competition, cyber attacks on hospitals and power grids, and economic coercion by adversarial states. These are non-traditional security (NTS) threats — they do not originate from organised armed forces, they do not respect borders, and they often require whole-of-government rather than purely military responses. For India — with its 1.4 billion population, significant climate vulnerability, and rapid digitisation of critical infrastructure — NTS threats have moved from the margins to the centre of the security debate.

Health Security

COVID-19 as a Biosecurity Lesson

The COVID-19 pandemic (declared by the WHO on 11 March 2020) exposed systemic gaps in global and national health security architectures. From India's internal security perspective:

• Healthcare overload forced suspension of normal governance and internal security operations at peak pandemic (April–May 2021)
• Supply chain disruption revealed dependence on Chinese Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) — approximately 68–70% of India's API imports came from China pre-2020
• Information warfare dimension: pandemic-linked disinformation campaigns spread communal tensions online, requiring CERT-In and state police cyber cells to counter fake news about COVID spread

One Health Approach

The One Health framework recognises that human health, animal health, and environmental health are interdependent. An estimated 60% of known infectious diseases and 75% of emerging diseases are zoonotic — originating in animals. India's biosecurity requires:

• Integrated surveillance across human (MoHFW), animal (MoAHF&D), and environment (MoEFCC) ministries
• National Action Plan for Antimicrobial Resistance (NAP-AMR) adopted in 2017 — India's One Health commitment
• Joint monitoring mechanisms between ICAR (animal disease), ICMR (human disease), and NIMR (environmental disease vectors)

APSED Framework

The Asia Pacific Strategy for Emerging Diseases and Public Health Emergencies (APSED) — developed by WHO SEARO and WPRO — provides a regional framework for health security under International Health Regulations (IHR 2005). APSED III focuses on nine areas including biosafety and biosecurity systems, zoonoses under the One Health approach, and emergency preparedness. The successor Asia Pacific Health Security Action Framework (APHSAF), endorsed in 2023, integrates One Health across six interconnected domains and aligns with the Sendai Framework (disaster risk reduction) and SDGs.

Climate-Induced Security Threats

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier — it does not create conflicts from nothing but intensifies existing resource competition, migration pressures, and state fragility.

The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate and the IPCC AR6 (2022) both identify South Asia as among the most climate-vulnerable regions globally, with potentially catastrophic wet bulb temperature events by 2050 if warming exceeds 2°C.

Cyber Attacks on Critical Infrastructure

Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure represent the most direct convergence of the digital domain and physical security.

AIIMS Delhi Ransomware Attack — November 2022

On 23 November 2022, a ransomware attack struck All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi — India's premier government hospital and a repository of VVIP medical records. Key facts:

• Five physical servers among over 100 were compromised; all digital hospital operations — emergency, OPD, IPD, laboratory services — shifted to manual management for approximately 15 days
• Attackers reportedly demanded approximately Rs 200 crore in cryptocurrency
• Delhi Police registered cases of extortion and cyber terrorism under IT Act Section 66F
• Four new servers were sourced from DRDO; e-Hospital data restored from backup servers by 16 December 2022
• NIA initiated investigation on grounds of suspected state-sponsored cyberterrorism

The attack exposed the vulnerability of India's health information infrastructure and the risk of patient data — including sensitive political figures' health records — being weaponised or leaked.

Power Grid Cyber Intrusions

Investigations by Recorded Future (a US cybersecurity firm) in 2021 revealed that RedEcho, a China-linked threat actor, had inserted malware into 10 Indian power sector organisations including NTPC and state load dispatch centres during the India-China LAC standoff in 2020. A major Mumbai power outage in October 2020 — halting trains, stock exchanges, and hospitals for up to 12 hours — has been linked to this intrusion, though India's Power Ministry attributed it to human error. Whether the outage was triggered by the malware remains contested, but the malware presence itself was confirmed by Indian government officials.

These incidents illustrate economic coercion through cyber means — using non-kinetic tools to signal capability and impose costs without triggering military escalation.

Energy Security as a Security Threat

India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil and 55% of its natural gas requirements. Energy supply disruptions — whether from conflict in the Gulf, sanctions on Russia, or chokepoint blockades — constitute a direct economic and security threat:

• Strait of Hormuz (21 million barrels/day global transit) — any closure impacts India's energy supply within weeks
• Malacca Strait — 40% of world trade and significant India-bound LNG transits through this chokepoint
• Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India's three SPR sites at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur hold approximately 5.33 million tonnes — roughly 9–12 days of consumption at current levels

India's Institutional Response

Absence of a National Security Strategy

India is one of the few major powers without a publicly declared National Security Strategy (NSS). The National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) has produced draft strategy documents on multiple occasions, but successive governments have refrained from publishing a formal NSS — citing the secrecy advantage of ambiguity. This absence creates coordination gaps: no unified framework assigns responsibilities for non-traditional threats across ministries.

Key Institutions

Environmental Terrorism

Environmental terrorism involves deliberate attacks on natural resources or environmental systems to cause harm — destruction of oil pipelines, setting forests on fire, contaminating water supplies. In India's context, the concern includes:

• Deliberate dam destruction or flood-release threats in conflict zones
• Agricultural sabotage using biological agents on crops
• Toxic waste dumping near water bodies by criminal networks

Important for UPSC

Prelims Focus

• AIIMS ransomware attack: 23 November 2022; demand ~Rs 200 crore; IT Act Section 66F (cyber terrorism)
• Mumbai power outage: October 2020; RedEcho (China-linked malware)
• APSED: WHO framework; APHSAF (successor, 2023)
• One Health approach: human + animal + environment health interdependence
• India's SPR: 3 sites — Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, Padur
• NSC placed under PMO: 1998 (reconstituted); NSA is Member Secretary of NSC

Mains Dimensions

• "Non-traditional security threats are more dangerous than traditional threats for India in the 21st century — critically examine" — health, climate, cyber, energy dimensions
• "How does climate change act as a threat multiplier for India's internal security?" — water, food, migration, resource conflict pathways
• "Evaluate India's preparedness to handle cyber attacks on critical infrastructure" — AIIMS, power grid cases; CERT-In, NCIIPC gaps; absence of NSS
• "Does India need a formal National Security Strategy? Analyse the debate" — arguments for (coordination, clarity, accountability) and against (strategic ambiguity, adversary intelligence)

Recent Developments (2024–2026)

Extreme Weather as Internal Security — India 2024

India experienced extreme weather events on 314 out of 365 days in 2024, resulting in 2,933 deaths, 92,000 animal deaths, destruction of 8,000 homes, and damage to 2 million hectares of crops (DownToEarth / India Meteorological Department data). The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) estimates approximately 14 million people in India have been internally displaced due to climate change. This scale of climate-driven disruption crosses from disaster management into security territory: it strains law enforcement capacity, triggers resource competition, fuels communal and caste tensions in affected areas, and creates migration pressure on border states (Bangladesh flooding → Assam/West Bengal migration). The IPCC AR6 (2022) and Lancet Countdown both identify South Asia as among the world's most climate-vulnerable regions.

UPSC angle: India's 314 extreme weather days in 2024, 2,933 deaths, 14 million climate-displaced persons, and climate-migration nexus to border security — are factual anchors for the climate-as-security-threat argument in GS-III analysis.

Health Security — WHO Pandemic Treaty and India's Position (2024–2025)

WHO negotiations for a Pandemic Treaty (Pandemic Accord) proceeded through 2024 but failed to reach consensus at the World Health Assembly (WHA) in May 2024 — the deadline was extended. Key dispute: intellectual property rights on pandemic vaccines (Doha Declaration principles vs. developed country industry interests). India has strongly advocated for TRIPS flexibilities and technology transfer for developing countries. Meanwhile, the APHSAF (Asia Pacific Health Security Action Framework 2023) replaced APSED III, aligning regional biosurveillance with One Health and the Sendai Framework. India's National Action Plan for Antimicrobial Resistance (NAP-AMR) — a One Health initiative — continues implementation. Post-COVID API import dependency on China has led India to develop domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing through PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) Scheme for Pharmaceuticals.

UPSC angle: WHO Pandemic Treaty stalled (May 2024 WHA), India's TRIPS/IP position, APHSAF 2023, and India's API self-sufficiency drive through PLI — connect health security with NTS and global governance dimensions.

Energy Security — India's Changing Oil Import Mix and SPR (2024–2025)

Russia's war on Ukraine (2022-ongoing) fundamentally reshaped India's energy security calculus. India scaled up Russian crude oil imports, which rose to approximately 40% of India's total crude imports by 2024 (up from negligible levels pre-2022) — providing substantial cost savings (heavily discounted Urals crude). However, this deepened India's dependence on a single source now under Western sanctions, creating a new vulnerability. India has also been expanding its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) capacity: the existing 5.33 million tonnes at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur will be supplemented by SPR Phase II sites at Chandikhole (Odisha) and Padur II, targeting an additional 6.5 million tonnes. India joined the International Energy Agency (IEA) as an Association Country in 2017; energy security coordination has intensified post-Ukraine.

UPSC angle: Russia as 40% of India's crude imports by 2024, SPR Phase II expansion (Chandikhole + Padur II), and IEA-India cooperation — are current factual anchors for the energy security as NTS dimension.

National Security Strategy Gap — Institutional Response (2025)

India remains one of the few major powers without a publicly available National Security Strategy (NSS). However, in 2025, the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) under NSA Ajit Doval released a classified internal document called the "Strategic Framework for Non-Traditional Threats" (details partially leaked to media), indicating a shift toward a whole-of-government NTS architecture. The National Cyber Security Coordinator's office under NSCS has been elevated in prominence, with strengthened mandates for cyber-NTS coordination. The absence of a public NSS — unlike the US (NSS 2022), UK (Integrated Review 2023), or Australia (National Defence Strategy 2024) — remains a governance gap identified in parliamentary debates in 2024-25.

UPSC angle: India's NSS gap, NSCS 2025 non-traditional threats framework, National Cyber Security Coordinator's elevated role — are analytical points for "India needs a comprehensive NTS doctrine" argument in GS-III Mains answers.

Current Affairs Connect

Sources: WHO — APSED III and APHSAF (who.int); ORF America — Evolution of India's NSC (orfamerica.org); NLIU CSIPR — AIIMS Cyber Attack Analysis (nliu.ac.in); Recorded Future / The Wire — RedEcho and Mumbai Power Outage; BusinessToday — Cyber attack from China behind Mumbai power outage; Drishti IAS — India's National Security Strategy (drishtiias.com); NDMA (ndma.gov.in).