Insurgency in Northeast India — AFSPA, Peace Accords & Development Strategy

Overview

Northeast India --- comprising eight states (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura) --- has experienced multiple insurgencies since Independence, rooted in ethnic identity, political marginalisation, geographic isolation, and a colonial legacy of separate administration. At its peak, the region hosted over 100 insurgent groups across ethnic, tribal, and separatist lines.

However, the security landscape has improved dramatically over the past decade. Since 2014, the number of insurgency-related incidents has declined by over 70%, the number of fatalities has reduced significantly, and several major peace accords have been signed --- including with the Bodo groups (2020) and ULFA (2023). The Naga peace process, however, remains unresolved despite the 2015 Framework Agreement.

For UPSC, Northeast insurgency is a high-priority GS-III topic, frequently asked alongside AFSPA, border management, and Act East Policy.

Historical Roots of Insurgency

Colonial Legacy

Post-Independence Factors

Major Insurgent Groups

Nagaland

Assam

Manipur

Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram

Major Peace Accords

Mizo Accord (1986)

Bodo Accord (2020)

ULFA Peace Settlement (2023)

NLFT Agreement (2019) and Bru Agreement (2020)

The Naga Peace Process

Timeline

Key Contentious Issues

For Mains: The Naga peace process is a frequently asked topic. Key points: (1) the 2015 Framework Agreement remains unsigned as a final settlement, (2) the flag and constitution demands are the main sticking points, (3) the "Greater Nagalim" concept threatens the territorial integrity of Manipur, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh, and (4) any solution must balance Naga aspirations with the concerns of other states.

AFSPA (Armed Forces Special Powers Act)

Key Provisions

History and Application

Committees and Recommendations

Partial Withdrawal

For Prelims: AFSPA was enacted in 1958 and has been applied in northeastern states and J&K. The Jeevan Reddy Committee (2005) recommended its repeal. Tripura withdrew AFSPA in 2015 and Meghalaya in 2018. The act requires the "disturbed area" declaration by the Governor or Central Government.

Development as Counter-Insurgency

Institutional Framework

Connectivity and Act East

Security Improvements Since 2014

Manipur Crisis (2023-Present)

For Mains: The Manipur crisis highlights how ethnic tensions, historical land disputes, and weak governance can reignite violence even in states with existing peace mechanisms. The looting of 5,000+ weapons from state armouries is an unprecedented internal security failure. For answer writing, discuss the crisis as a case study of the intersection between identity politics, armed group politics, and internal security.

Role of Civil Society and Church in NE Peace

Cross-Border Dimensions

Assam Accord (1985) and the NRC

Mains Previous Year Question Themes

Common UPSC Mains themes on NE insurgency:

• "Discuss the root causes of insurgency in Northeast India and evaluate the government's response."
• "Critically examine the role of AFSPA in India's counter-insurgency strategy in the Northeast."
• "The Mizo Accord is considered the most successful peace agreement in India. Discuss."
• "Examine the challenges in resolving the Naga political issue."
• "Evaluate the role of the Act East Policy in addressing development deficit in Northeast India."
• "Discuss the impact of the Bodo Accord (2020) on peace and stability in Assam."

Recent Developments (2024–2026)

AFSPA Extended — Manipur (Full State), Nagaland, Arunachal (2024)

AFSPA (Armed Forces Special Powers Act, 1958) was re-extended across much of the Northeast in 2024. In Manipur, AFSPA was re-imposed on the entire state in October 2024 (barring 19 police station areas initially, later reduced to 13 areas after November 2024 violence in Jiribam). The reimposition reflected the ongoing ethnic violence between Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities. In Nagaland, 8 districts and 21 police station areas in 5 other districts were declared "disturbed areas" for 6 months effective April 2025. In Arunachal Pradesh, AFSPA was also extended in some areas.

Over 260 people were killed and thousands displaced in Manipur's ethnic conflict since May 2023. In 2024, the northeast recorded 266 insurgency-related incidents, with 203 in Manipur alone, causing 258 deaths.

UPSC angle: AFSPA re-extension in Manipur (full state, 2024), Nagaland (8 districts), Arunachal Pradesh — important current affairs. AFSPA gives armed forces special powers including immunity from prosecution in "disturbed areas." The civil society demand for its repeal vs. the army's requirement for operational protection is a standard GS-III tension.

NSCN-IM Naga Peace Talks — Stalemate Continues (2024–2025)

The Naga peace process between the Government of India and the NSCN (IM) remained stalled in 2024–25. The NSCN (IM) continues to demand a separate Naga flag and constitution — conditions India has consistently refused. The Framework Agreement signed in August 2015 raised hopes, but no final settlement has been reached in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, the Government of India has engaged with other Naga groups (NNPGs — 7 tribal factions) who have been more flexible, raising concerns that the NSCN (IM) is being marginalised.

UPSC angle: Naga peace process — Framework Agreement (August 2015), NSCN(IM)'s demands (separate flag + constitution, "Greater Nagalim"), Government's rejection, and the ongoing impasse — is a perennial GS-III Northeast insurgency topic.

Manipur Ethnic Violence — Kuki-Meitei Conflict (2023–2024)

The Manipur ethnic conflict, which began in May 2023 after a High Court order on Meitei inclusion in ST list sparked protests in Kuki-Zo hill areas, continued through 2024. More than 260 people were killed, 60,000 displaced, and thousands of structures damaged. The state has effectively been divided along ethnic lines, with Meiteis dominating the Imphal Valley and Kuki-Zos in the hills. Internet shutdowns, AFSPA re-imposition, and deployment of central paramilitary forces characterised the government's response. The conflict exposed deep governance failures in Manipur.

In November 2024, the violence escalated in Jiribam district, leading to further AFSPA expansion.

UPSC angle: Manipur 2023–2024 ethnic conflict — causes (Meitei ST demand, forest rights, illegal immigration allegations), casualties (260+ dead, 60,000 displaced), AFSPA re-imposition, Internet shutdown — is a high-priority GS-III topic connecting internal security, governance, and development failures.

ULFA Peace Pact and Remaining Challenge (December 2023 Legacy into 2024)

A Memorandum of Settlement was signed in December 2023 with the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) pro-talks faction led by Arabinda Rajkhowa. However, the hardline ULFA(I) faction under Paresh Barua — operating from Myanmar — remains outside the peace process and continues to demand Assam's sovereignty. Barua's faction continues to use Myanmar as a sanctuary, though Myanmar's civil war has disrupted the faction's operational capacity.

UPSC angle: ULFA — two factions: Rajkhowa (talks faction, signed MoS December 2023) and Paresh Barua (hardline, Myanmar-based, outside peace process). The settlement with Rajkhowa faction is significant but incomplete without Barua. Myanmar sanctuary as a strategic complication.

AFSPA Extended Again — Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal (March–April 2025)

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs extended AFSPA in Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh for another six months on 30 March 2025, effective from 1 April 2025. In Nagaland, eight districts (Dimapur, Niuland, Chumoukedima, Mon, Kiphire, Noklak, Phek, and Peren) plus 21 police stations in five other districts remain "disturbed areas." In Manipur, AFSPA continues across most of the state (barring around 13 police station areas), reflecting the continuing ethnic conflict. In Arunachal Pradesh, limited border areas remain under AFSPA. AFSPA has been completely withdrawn from Tripura (2015) and Meghalaya (2018), and progressively reduced in Assam (only 4 districts retain AFSPA, down from the full state).

The continued AFSPA extension in Manipur — now the longest re-imposition since the Act was originally enacted in 1958 for Nagaland — reflects the governance failure in containing the Meitei-Kuki-Zo ethnic conflict. Over 260 people killed and 60,000 displaced since May 2023. The Government's use of AFSPA in an ethnically divided situation (rather than purely an insurgency situation) is a significant doctrinal expansion being debated by legal scholars.

UPSC angle: Prelims — AFSPA extension: March 2025 for 6 months; 8 districts in Nagaland; most of Manipur; Tripura (2015) and Meghalaya (2018) AFSPA-free. Mains (GS3) — AFSPA as tool for ethnic conflict vs insurgency (distinction); Manipur ethnic conflict governance failure; Jeevan Reddy Committee (2005) recommendation to repeal; EEVFAM Supreme Court ruling on fake encounters.

Key Terms for Quick Revision

Exam Strategy

For Mains Answer Writing: NE insurgency questions often ask about "challenges to internal security." Structure answers around: (1) root causes (colonial legacy, ethnic identity, underdevelopment, cross-border sanctuaries), (2) government response (military operations, peace accords, AFSPA), and (3) development approach (Act East, connectivity, DoNER). Always mention the Mizo Accord (1986) as the gold standard of successful peace processes and the Naga issue as the longest unresolved case. Use specific data --- 70% decline in incidents since 2014, 10 peace accords, 1,600 Bodo cadres surrendered.

For Prelims: Focus on AFSPA enactment year (1958), Mizo Accord (1986), Bodo Accord (2020), ULFA MoS (2023), Framework Agreement (2015), NEC establishment (1971), and the Jeevan Reddy Committee recommendation (repeal AFSPA). Also know that Tripura (2015) and Meghalaya (2018) have withdrawn AFSPA.

For current affairs on Northeast peace processes, AFSPA developments, and Act East connectivity, visit Ujiyari.com.